The Delphi principle

Each event is the result of influence magnitudes

From causes effects derive and from effects causes recognize are the two models for further discussion, which hide themselves behind the Delphi principle.

Constant and variable influence magnitudes

The principle assumes that in principle any event (e.g. the operating result, the course of a currency or the production time of a part) the result of influence magnitudes and their dependencies. Depending on the nature of the influence of a characteristic to its target size is to be differentiated between constant and variable influence magnitudes.
At constant influence magnitudes can the influence on the target size be shown over formulas in all rule.
At variable influence determines against it only their concrete development magnitudes their influence on the target size, at which the influence over functions or rather probabilities can be described. Here also the influence of several factors is to be considered with each other.

The Delphi principle

The Delphi principle searches

  • from concrete observations (experiences) and the observation resulting knowledge of their influence on a  target size prognoses about future observations and the resulting future developments to meet the target size or
  • draw conclusions from the knowledge of observed target sizes about these target sizes significantly influencing variables.

Both procedures have in each case the goal of being able to prognosticate over multiple influence magnitudes calculation procedures future events in relatively close limits. Here won experiences are consulted again and again as additional factors of influence in the styles of an expert system.

Future results from the past

The future is a resulting from the past, the irrational and rational interpretation and the will to influence shaping. Good observation of the past and good assessment of what could not be observed, make the future more understandable and a little foreseeable.
Already into Greek antiquity one took advantage of this circumstance, in order to derive from observations divine prophecies.
By the undogmatic, individual decoding and interpretation of the symbolic indications, which e.g. gave the divine oracle of Delphi to its interrogators to the answer, everyone saw the possibility of take personal influence on its future fate and its interests.
At this principle nothing changed till today - alone the number of the factors and influence magnitudes to recognize it to overlook and evaluate is valid, more extensively and in their connection became more complex.
RGU expert GmbH has developed a software package that opens up these factors with the help of statistic methods and procedures fast and reliably. On the basis of this precise data it is easier for the entrepreneur to make the right decisions and thus initiate a successful enterprise development. How once with the oracle in Delphi is also in the prognosis generator, the art is, the given "character" to construe them and interpret.

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